Water heating is bigger than ever

A lot has changed in energy since the 70's, but we still use a lot of it.

We do have a bit of good news on the residential energy efficiency front.  The average American home uses just about the same amount of total energy as it did 30 years ago despite a rising standard of living and more plug-in creature comforts than ever before.  It's actually trending down on a per household basis.

I see two problems with this however.  First of all, we have a whole lot more homes today than in 1978.  We're around 115 million households today where we were only at 68 million in the 1970s.  While flat or even slightly declining per household energy consumption is great, 47 million new households means that we're using a lot more energy on the whole than ever before.

Where we use energy in our homes--1978 and today.

The second problem I see with this data is highlighted in the two pie charts above.  Where we use energy has shifted rather dramatically.  Due to key improvements in building technology and code, space heating accounts for much less of our homes' energy budget.  Air sealing, insulation, and mechanical system efficiency enhancements have worked.  This was low hanging fruit though and further total efficiency gains are going to be harder to achieve.

Take a look at the water heating portion of the chart.  20% of our residential energy goes to heating up water for showers, cooking, and cleaning.  This is a very predictable energy load that is completely unrelated to any other mechanical system in the house or to the quality of the building envelope.  As we look to make further cuts in per capita and total energy consumption, the water heating load is an excellent place to focus.

Germany has far less sun & far more solar than the US.  No one thinks the Germans are flaky environmental nuts either.

This is where solar water heating can make a big impact.  We have more than enough sun anywhere in the US to offset the water heating energy requirement with existing solar collector technologies commercially available today. Despite the cyclical ups and downs on the prices of specific types of energy, energy efficiency strategies enacted today will pay for themselves over the long run.

The answer to our energy problems rises every morning.

Solar Thermal is Hardly Dead

A recent article with the confrontational title "Solar Thermal is Dead" touting Heat Pump Water Heaters (HPWH) coupled to PV systems as replacement to solar water heating (SWH) made a big splash in the solar energy and green building web-o-sphere. This piece was a valid thought experiment about where technology may head but misses a few key points for why solar thermal systems are still a better way to heat domestic water than a HPWH/PV system.  Here are three counterpoints:

1. HPWHs aren't a cure all 

HPWHs move heat from the surrounding environment into a tank of water through the heat pump cycle using mechanical work.  Just as with space heating and cooling, this can be a very energy efficient way to achieve a temperature goal versus traditional HVAC equipment.  There are a couple of problems with HPWHs however.  

Energy efficiency doesn't have to be about reduced quality of life

First of all, the "mechanical work" component of them makes a good bit of noise just as power-vented natgas water heaters (another higher efficiency water heating appliance) have a noticeable fan noise.


Secondly, HPWHs don't work as well if the surrounding air is cold.  Placing it in a cold basement or garage will lead to less than optimal performance that the article's author used to compare this technology to SWH.


Thirdly, the efficiency factor of a HPWH is based on it operating in hybrid (heat pump) mode.  Just as with SWH, HPWHs have a back up element (usually electric resistance heating coils). When a big call for hot water such as to fill a bathtub, might outpace the hybrid mode of the water heater to recover the volume of water required.  In this case, the electric resistance heater kicks in and the water heater becomes no more efficient than a standard tank style electric water heater.

2. The maintenance on a SWH is overstated

and the author underrepresents the maintenance on a PV system.  A trained solar water heater contractor can install a complete pressurized system as a retrofit to a home in less than a day (I've personally seen this over a dozen times). Once system pressure is reached, any solar loop leaks are immediately apparent and are unlikely to spontaneously occur in the future. Circulating pumps are a mechanical item in a SWH system but have little stress applied to them since they have minimal head pressure to overcome. These circulating pumps are also low cost items to replace if they do fail. Solar fluid replacement is a non-issue with a properly sized system since stagnation temperatures would be reach less often.  I'm not sure why the author brought of tracking as this is rapidly becoming a non-issue in both PV and solar thermal as module prices fall; with the fail rate on trackers, it isn't really something to bring up in a negative comment about maintenance on SWH anyways. 

There are companies in business just to do maintenance on PV systems

PV isn't completely free of maintenance either. Inverters are the short pole in a PV system and they are significantly more expensive to replace than any piece of a solar water heater.

3. PV takes up too much real estate

I was going to address the author's underestimate of the installation cost of a PV system. He was called out about this in the comments to the article and admitted that his 1.4kW installation price was dependent on installing a 9kW system along with it.  I think that's a huge if...

SWH array fit between architectural roof facets

In any case, this ties into my final argument for why a PV/HPWH hasn't killed SWH and won't for some time.  PV takes up way too much space to be practical for many homes.  Check out the house above that I was working on last week in Michigan. There were too many roof facets to find a spot on the south face for much more than the 3-panel solar water heating system that we installed. You couldn't fit in enough PV between the dormer below and valleys on each side to offset the energy that the solar water heater would.  For you solar techies out there, good luck on convincing either architects or home buyers that plain expanses of roof are aesthetically pleasing; architectural roof elements aren't going anywhere so solar will have to work around these.

Tale of 2 arrays.  The SWH collectors on the left produce the same amount of energy as the PV on the right.

Conclusion

I'm a big fan of all things solar so I don't want to come off as a PV basher. My point is to highlight that there are appropriate applications for certain technologies but not any one thing is a solution to everything. Eventually PV may fall so low in price and become much more space efficient thus relegating SWH to relic status. This hasn't happened yet. Heating water with the sun will continue to be best done with a solar water heater for many years to come.

Let's keep the intra-solar squabbles to a minimum--we have bigger enemies to address

Energy Factor and water heating technologies

A different sort of green home

According to the US Dept of Energy's website, energy factor (EF) indicates a water heater's overall energy efficiency based on the amount of hot water produced per unit of fuel consumed over a typical day. This rating applies to a variety of water heater equipment: tank-style (storage), tankless/on-demand, and heat pump water heaters (HPWH).


Solar water heating has a very similar rating called the Solar Energy Factor (SEF).  Solar equipment is evaluated for thermal performance efficiency by an organization called the Solar Rating & Certification Corporation (SRCC).  The federal tax incentives for the installation of solar equipment are contingent on the solar water heating equipment having been evaluated by the SRCC.  The SRCC developed the SEF for the purpose of comparing solar water heating systems to a standard 50 gallon residential water heater in an apples-to-apples sort of way. Many natural gas utilities use the industry standard EF rating system to award rebates for high performing water heating equipment.  Since SEF is the solar equivalent of EF for a standard water heater, my view is that solar water heating systems that meet EF ratings for high performance equipment should qualify at a minimum for the existing utility rebate programs.


So how do different water heating technologies measure up with respect to energy efficiency?


Tank storage water heaters

Bradford White 40 gallon gas water heater

Typical residential storage water heaters range in size between 40 and 80 gallons.  This volume of water is heated up to the desired temperature (120 degrees F); the heating element or burner cycles on and off as a thermostat in the top portion of the tank detects adequate heat or not.  This is usually the least expensive water heating technology to install but is also normally the most expensive to operate. Recovery of the heat in the tank during and after use can be slower than with other water heaters which leads to the cold showers in high use situations.


EF rating for gas heated tank water heaters:

• Low efficiency -- < 0.62
• Medium efficiency -- 0.62 to 0.67
• High efficiency -- 0.67 to 0.82

EF rating for electric heated tank water heaters:

• Low efficiency -- <0.90
• High efficiency -- up to 0.95

Keep in mind that EF rating is only with respect to the energy efficiency of the appliance.  The electricity that heats the water in an electric tank model could be coming from sources with varying degrees of efficiency and environmental impact.

Tankless

Tankless water heater (top right) in conjunction with a solar water heater

Also called on-demand water heaters, these units heat water as it flows through the device.  They are capable of reducing water heating costs 10-20% due to the elimination of standby losses (constantly heating a tank of water even when no hot water is needed).  Tankless units come in electric, natural gas, and propane versions for different markets.  Not only are these a bit more energy efficient than tank style water heaters, they are also compact, wall mounted devices to save space in the mechanical room and they can provide almost unlimited amounts of hot water.


The EF rating for gas-fired tankless units ranges between 0.82 and 0.96. 


Heat Pump Water Heaters

From DOE

In a heat pump water heater, electricity is used to move heat from the air around the HPWH into the water tank versus directly heating the water with resistance coils.  Since the heat pump cycle can take a significant amount of time to heat or reheat a tank of water, electric resistance coils are included in HPWHs to augment the recovery of the water heating and thus minimize cold shower scenarios.  HPWHs can be very energy efficient and cost effective when the HPWH is operating in the heat pump mode; they revert to EF ratings of electric water heaters when the resistance coils kick in however.  Like with many things in the sustainable building world, efficient design is only part of the total picture.  How something is used in the real world effects its overall efficiency. 


EF ratings of HPWH in hybrid mode is 2.20 and fall off towards 0.93 in electric mode (average ~1.60).


Solar Water Heaters

In solar water heaters (SWH), the heat from the sun's radiation is transferred to drinking water during the day and stored in a tank of water for use throughout the day and night.  In homes where a 40 gallon tank water heater is appropriate, you'll find a 60 gallon solar storage tank. Because the amount of energy to move the heat from the solar collectors to the drinking water is minimal and the sun's energy is free, the operating costs of SWHs are the lowest of any water heating technology today. They are also the lowest carbon option when the system offsets fuel from gas appliances or electricity from coal-fired plants. SWHs have the highest upfront cost in the water heating space, but federal and state incentives exist to encourage their adoption since they provide a benefit to both the system owner and society as a whole.


Calculating EF from the SEF rating developed at the SRCC is done with the following equation: SEF x (1 - SF) = EF. SEF and SF (Solar Fraction) are calculations from the OG-300 report on each system found at www.solar-rating.org. EF ratings on SWHs range from 0.93 up to over 5.70 depending on the size of the system, location, and back up fuel option.


Summary
The less you pay upfront for a water heater, the more you pay over time.  As fuel prices of all sorts rise in the future, an investment in efficiency today will pay increasing dividends over time.

How to sell a solar water heater in a market with cheap natural gas

With the price of natural gas at a historically low point, selling a solar water heating system in natural gas water heater markets is a tough proposition. While we have to address return on investment as solar professionals, there are many other factors that go into a customer's decision making process about going solar. Solar water heating isn't for everyone so broad brush approaches won't work. The key is to target the right audience with the right message before you spend much time or money. The following is a guide to help you do this.

What to talk about

John Cole Cartoons

People are interested in distributed solar energy for a number of reasons.  Residential solar water heating continues to be an exceptional option in the portfolio of clean energy choices a homeowner has.  Energy cost savings is just one aspect of a clean energy purchase.  Make sure that you are talking about all the other reasons for pursuing solar.  Here are some good ones to start with and expand upon:

• Solar water heating (SWH) is a cost effective way to reduce home energy consumption by over 10%.
• Like electric vehicle purchases, SWH is a visible commitment to clean energy for a much lower sticker price than any car.
• When built into a new home, the net cost of a SWH is on par with the cost of a tankless water heater yet SWH outperforms tankless units in energy savings (EF of 0.82 for tankless vs 1.4 for SWH)
• While low now, the price of natural gas is set to rise with growing demand from electrical generation and transportation as well as with increasing scrutiny of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) practices. A SWH installed today is a hedge against rising fuel prices.
• Talk about the avoided costs & externalities of fossil fuels. Natural gas may be cleaner than coal, but it's hardly clean in comparison to solar water heating.
• Solar water heating creates local jobs--engineering, installation & service, sales & marketing, and distribution.

Tell the story to the right people

You need to maximize the impact of your messaging by positioning them in front of the right audience. The right audience is one that is both receptive and responsive to your point of view. To encourage a conversation and spur interest in SWH, the best approach is a combination of Facebook and blogging. Articles that address your messaging can't be neutral. You have to make a point either with your own blog posts or with comments on articles written by others. Your opinions may alienate some people, but those people are probably not receptive or responsive to clean energy issues in the first place--your target customer is. There are people out there who are concerned, knowledgeable, angry, and ready to act if they find a leader in their community with a solution that resonates with them. Solar is part of the solution and you are that solution provider.  Don't make any assumptions about who a receptive and responsive customer might be; stirring up a conversation about the issues that got you into the solar business in the first place will bring them to you.

Where to tell the story

Web marketing is a hot topic with lots of nuance.  It is an essential part of modern business and is redefining the fields of public relations, promotion, sales, and general marketing.  In the interests of getting you started today, I suggest working with the steps below.  Expand and modify as you get more comfortable and learn more.

1. Find an article that resonates with you and your team.  Get your friends, family or co-workers to suggest an article to post and select one.
2. Post the article to your Facebook business page (make a Facebook business page if you don't have one and encourage people to "Like" it).
3. Make comments on this post that tell your target audience why this article is important to you. 
4. Get all your friends, family, and co-workers to "Like" the article so their network sees it too.
5. Directly ask people to read and comment on your post (via email, phone, twitter, FilterTweeps,  etc).  
6. Repeat every workday.

Once you get comfortable with this daily effort, you can branch out a bit by writing your own blog articles.  Post it to your company website or some other website (Tumblr, Blogger, etc).  Use this as your Facebook link of the day and encourage the comments as suggested above.  Also while Facebook is the current dominant player in social media, explore using other sites like Twitter, LinkedIn, Google+, or any of the other growing number of websites to expand the reach of your effort.

Keep at it

Cheap natural gas makes for a difficult sales process for solar water heating. Difficult but not impossible. Continually remind yourself why you got into this business in the first place and find creative ways to connect with like-minded people. Tell people about your company and its goals.  Keep people continuously aware of your projects to build on successes. Help people connect their daily behavior to greater social trends. Be consistent, be informative, and be real. You'll begin to find that the right people will find you.

Talking solar at the CCGT

I spoke for the second time at the Chicago Center for Green Technology last Tuesday night.  The first time was last September and it went well enough for them to invite me back for another go at it.  My presentation covered solar water heating technologies in a broad way and has been set up to be a continuing education course for AIA architects.  Despite it being Valentine's Day, we had a rather large turn out with over 40 people in the audience.  The CCGT has been seeing strong attendance with all the their courses in this winter session.  I feel the general awareness level of the public is continuing to grow with respect to sustainable building practices and with solar technologies in particular.  The questions from the audience were more technical and specifically focused for projects that people are seriously considering.  I have even had 2 subsequent site evaluations from my talk for solar projects in Chicago from people interested in solar for their particular buildings.

 
I speak all the time about solar water heating and solar technologies in general so feel free to reach out to me about arranging a talk with your group!

What does Japan's energy troubles teach us about our own?

I came across Mark Pendergrast's new e-book after reading a blog post he did recently for Renewable Energy World.  Japan has very few traditional energy resources at its disposal so it relies on fossil fuels imports and nuclear power to power its economy.  After the Fukushima nuclear disaster caused by the tsunami of March 11, 2011, popular support for nuclear power in Japan fell rather dramatically (as one would expect).  Imported fossil fuels for electricity generation, notoriously expensive anywhere in the world, became it's sole source of energy and put Japan in a tough position to re-grow its economy.

Japan's Tipping Point: Crucial Choices in the Post-Fukushima World

Japan now has a major incentive to adopt energy efficiency measures and install renewable energy systems which is what Mark wanted to explore with his book Japan's Tipping Point.  He does a great job of detailing the sustainability initiatives that have been promoted in different parts of Japan and providing commentary on their efficacy.  Despite major structural reasons to the contrary, the Japanese seem to continue thinking in a pre-Fukushima way.  The conclusion you become forced to consider is that they might not make the leap to the next generation of power infrastructure anytime soon.

I worked for a Japanese company (SANYO) a couple of years ago, based in the US to develop solar energy projects with their solar modules.  At the time, SANYO was the 7th largest manufacturer of solar photovoltaic modules and had the most efficient panel that was commercially available.  I was brought on as the solar leader of a new organization called the US Environmental Solutions Division.  The stated purpose of this division was to bundle various SANYO products with a clean energy focus together as a total solution sale.  It sounded like a great initiative at the time but ended up appearing to be more of a PR exercise to make SANYO branded products more attractive during its acquisition by Panasonic.  While I spearheaded a couple interesting projects like a solar charging station in Portland, OR, there was not much appetite for significant solar market development plans.

OMSI solar electric vehicle charging station for e-bikes and e-cars in Portland, OR

My experience with the Japanese left me with the impression that they will be hard pressed to make the difficult decisions they have to make to move off fossil fuels.  While SANYO was a world leader in solar panel production, they have now slipped out of the top ten.  The leadership seemed to be resting on their laurels for cell efficiency and this has allowed competitors to catch up to them and gobble up market share. Sharp and Kyocera have also lost ground to Chinese and Korean competition.  I saw confusion, indifference, and fear in SANYO with respect to exploring new ways to promote solar products in the US.  In a rather obvious application for solar, they wouldn't consider installing more than a token amount of their own modules on their own new solar wafer and ingot factory opened in Oregon in 2009.  This sort of project challenged their entrenched way of thinking; hype was more important than actually accomplishing something innovative and highlighted how collaboration across internal divisions was extremely difficult.

So what lessons does this teach us in the US?  As I've written before, Americans are cursed with substantial fossil fuel resources under our own soil.  With the Japanese being "blessed" with paltry resources and still unable to take decisive action towards renewable energy, things don't look so great for renewable energy in the US anytime soon.  The Japanese are not alone in their resistance to change with respect to energy.  The US with a population of almost 2.5 times that of Japan has about the same amount of installed solar PV.  US leaders continue to talk about nuclear as the hope for the future despite the obvious safety and economic troubles with it and despite no practical hope for new reactor additions anytime soon.  Wind farms get rejected for aesthetic reasons while coal continues to be our primary fuel source for electricity.

Bike & electronics charging solar canopy (concept)

Regardless, I continue to remain convinced that solar technologies will trump our other current energy options in a rather short period of time.  The cost curves of solar and it's O&M advantages with respect to everything else will win out; the environmental benefits will merely be icing on the cake.  Once we make the decision to go solar, the build out period will be much faster than most people realize.  I don't think the path to our solar future will be clear or easy however.  Some sort of major shock will have to get us all on the same page.  I would have thought Fukushima was that sort of shock for both Japan and the world.  Maybe not.  It's a naive thinker, however, who bets on things staying the same when radical change is the new normal.

Milwaukee Shining a Light on Solar

Milwaukee Shines

Last night, I went to the press conference in Milwaukee that announced the Milwaukee Shines Solar Financing program.  It was well attended by the mayor, city officials, and homeowners interested in participating in this new initiative.  Milwaukee is one of the 25 Solar America cities designated by the Department of Energy.  Milwaukee's Office of Environmental Sustainability is managing the grant money and publicity through the Milwaukee Shines organization.  After researching various factors that have been barriers to widespread solar adoption, the leadership of Milwaukee Shines decided to work on the upfront financing piece of a solar system that has prevented many homeowners from going solar.

In partnership with Summit Credit Union, city of Milwaukee residents can apply for loans up to $20,000 for solar water heating and solar electric (PV) systems.  All the costs of the solar installation can be built into the loan as long as the work is done by a Focus on Energy Residential Ally solar installer.  Additionally, the first 20 applicants get an additional $1,000 incentive off the cost of the installation.  This is above the 30% federal tax credit and the Focus on Energy incentive ($800 for a 1 panel system, $1200 for a 2 panel system).

Milwaukee is really making a tremendous effort to reshape the residential energy landscape to encourage clean, renewable energy; local jobs; and decreasing reliance on imported energy.

Ways to use solar water heating in a home

I love to talk and write about solar technologies.  My goal has always been to encourage all things solar because I think awareness of one type of solar system will benefit all the others.  Solar PV is the darling of the clean energy world--for good reason.  It produces versatile energy in a clean, quiet, safe, and predictable way.  The major downsides are its current cost and efficiency.  While these problems will be overcome with time, solar water heating is ready today.  It's still fun for me to see a home making 130 degree F water just from the sun on a cold March afternoon in Chicago. While my primary focus is on solar domestic water heating, I wanted to expand on some other ways a solar water heating systems could be used in a normal US home.

Solar Domestic Water Heating
The most simple way to harness the power of the sun in a home (after daylighting and applying passive solar design principles) is to heat up domestic (drinking) water with a solar water heating system.  This technology is well-established and easily adaptable to almost any home or building with a hot water demand.  Solar domestic water heaters are sized to reduce the water heating bill of any home in the US by 60-80%.  A typical home would need about 2 solar panels (50 - 80 sq. ft.) and about an 80 gallon storage tank.  Any solar system of this type will have some sort of back up water heating component to ensure that the residents have a steady supply of hot water despite the solar conditions of a particular day.

Solar Space Heating
If a homeowner is looking to squeeze a little more heat out of a solar water heating system and try to contribute some of this free energy to heating the home, there are a couple of ways to accomplish this. Not to be confused with a solar air heater, I'm still talking about an automatic system that heats up a liquid for use in the house.

Option 1:
Homes with an existing forced air furnace could install a solar water heating system sized to heat nearly 100% of the domestic water heating demand plus make a contribution to space heating (~25% or so).  A system of this sort would have about 5-6 solar collectors (150 - 240 sq. ft.) and about 200 gallons of storage tank volume.  This solar system would operate just as in the diagram above but have a second heat exchanger for transmitting solar heat into the return of the forced air furnace.  The second solar heat exchanger would pre-heat the air returning to the furnace so that it has less of a temperature rise to meet the desired room temperature.

Water-to-Air heat exchanger that would go in the air return side of a forced air furnace

Option 2:
Solar water heating systems could also deliver space heat through the use of a fan convector. A comparably sized system to #1 but without integrating the space heating delivery system to the furnace.  The homeowner could install a system which would automatically divert solar heated fluid through a fan convector(s) strategically placed in the home.  In this scenario, heat from the fan convector would warm the space as it becomes available from the solar system.  This contribution would help keep the thermostat from activating the primary space heating system as often.  A good application for this option might be for a vacation home that needs to be kept warm enough to prevent the pipes from freezing when not being occupied.

Myson fan convector unit on the left. Probably VELUX roof windows above.

Option 3:
Some homes have a hydronic heating system where medium temperature (140 degrees F) water circulates between a water heating unit and various zones throughout a house.  This heating system lends itself to a nice merger with a solar water heater.  As the hydronic fluid returns from a zone in the house depleted of heat, a heat exchanger from the solar storage tank could add heat to the fluid before it reaches the traditional heater.  This is one of the most efficient ways to deliver heat from a solar heated fluid to a living space.  These solar systems could be sized to be rather large (8-10+ collectors) depending on the space heating goals the home may have.

Tubes under the floor deliver heat to the room in a hydronic heating system

For any of these options, this style of heating system isn't usually the best primary space heater for a home since the winter months (when you want heat) typically correlate to shorter days and thus less solar energy to be harvested. Like with a solar domestic water heater, however, a solar space heating system will reduce the number of BTUs the traditional heater will have to deliver to the house even during the winter months.

Solar High Mass Systems
In this variety of space heating using solar energy, a solar water heating system heats up a large mass (many, many tons) of sand under a home which then slowly releases the heat over the winter months.  Owners of these systems begin to direct the solar heat to the sand mass which extracts the heat through a matrix of tubes embedded in the sand.  Many homes in cold climates are accomplishing 75%+ of their space heating needs through this style of solar water heating system.  Not all that complicated or that expensive, Solar High Mass systems will require a bit more homeowner involvement to make them work effectively with their lifestyle.  This also would need to be designed into a new home from the start since so much sand or other high mass material would need to be under the living space.  The Artha Sustainable Living Center is a great resource for more information on these systems.

Solar Assisted Ground Source Heat Pumps
A ground source heat pump (GSHP), aka geothermal, is a device that heats and cools a building by moving heat to and from the living space to a series of pipes in the ground.  Additionally, a GSHP can contribute to the domestic water heating needs of a home as well.  These systems function in a very similar way that a kitchen refrigerator does except the ground is the heat sink in the cooling cycle versus ambient air as with the refrigerator.

Imagine an array of 3-5 solar collectors on the south facing roof to integrate with the GSHP

A rather new implementation of a GSHP adds an array of solar water heating panels to the mix.  This Solar Assisted GSHP offers a few advantages over a standard GSHP:

1. The solar collectors can add heat to the ground all summer to allow the GSHP to be more effective at space heating in the winter.
2. Solar panels can pre-heat domestic water in the summer so that the heat pump may not need to function at all to provide domestic hot water when the weather is temperate.
3. Added heat can come from the solar collectors in the winter to augment the space heating cycle.
4. During the spring and fall, the heating load may be low enough that the solar collectors could provide enough space heat so that the heat pump would not need to operate.

GSHPs slowly deplete the ground heat immediately surrounding the bore wells over the life of the system.  For this reason, many green building codes don't classify this technology as "sustainable" or "renewable."  Coupling a solar array to the GSHP is a way to make this excellent technology truly sustainable.

The solution to our energy problems rises in the east every morning.

Idealism doesn't drive sustainable energy development

Northern Iowa Wind Farm - (Going Green In Orange)

A recent article on Renewable Energy World asks the question how did the US grow an energy consciousness.  I can't say that I agree with the implicit assumption the title makes.  I don't think most Americans really think about energy all that much or how important our current existence is on inexpensive, readily available, easily stored energy.  The United States is blessed (or cursed) with abundant natural resources.  This has clouded our collective long term thinking with respect to energy.  We are able to look at availability of energy on a very short term basis because we've had such a consistent supply of all forms of it for so long.  When was the last time anyone pulled into a gas station and found the filling tanks were empty?  How often do blackouts occur on the power grid? When either of these disruptions happen, big challenges ensue but fortunately they haven't occurred that often.  We get the power we want, when we want it, and it doesn't really cost us that much.

Compare this to energy situation of other countries around the world.  Island nations typically have very limited energy options. Their geographic separation from adjacent countries forces them to generate electricity locally and import petroleum via tanker ship--very costly and risky for their national security.  Japan, the world #2 for installed solar, has also resorted to massive reliance on nuclear which is now showing it's flaws in the most catastrophic way possible.  Faced with limited options, people take risks that they otherwise may not have taken.

Island of renewable energy (Michaelis Energy Island)

Germany is another story as well.  As the global leader in renewable energy development with 17% of its electric power capacity coming from renewables, outsiders may think that the Germans have a particularly strong commitment to clean energy.  While environmental reasons are now one of the arguments that Germans make for continuing their current energy policy, national security issues regarding supply of natural gas were the real spark for their dramatic shift towards wind and solar.  Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian natural gas companies have periodically played games with the supply of natural gas flowing to western Europe.  The spark that woke up the German populace was a disruption of gas during the peak heating season over the winter of 1992-93.  Cold homes in the winter are a strong motivating force for spending more on local energy.

The main message that Americans have heard regarding renewable energy is that it's good for the environment.  This is an idealistic message that has been both polarizing and lacking in teeth to drive tangible action by even those who believe the message.  Many people immediately think Quixotic farce when they hear anything about solar or wind development--overly idealistic and impractical.  Focusing on the environmental component to renewable energy makes this a political discussion where there are perceived good guys and bad guys.  We also get a lot less personal satisfaction from an effort to conserve energy while a neighbor continues to be profligate with his consumption and waste.  Our environmental savings are easily erased by people not of the same mindset.  None of this serves the purpose of a steady state energy system where we all have access to reasonably priced energy without the negative externalities of fossil fuels.

My read on the US energy situation is that we have about 10 years or so to make some dramatic changes in our mix of energy options to avoid disruption issues that other countries have already had.  10 years is a long time in the sense that we could (and probably will) chose to continue procrastinating on making the spending decisions that we need to make.  10 years is a short time in the sense that the capital improvements we need to make could take that much time or longer to actually complete.

The RE World article I reference above makes the case that governmental policy has been the most effective change mechanism in the US.  Maybe so but our current energy mix has very little renewable energy in it other than hydroelectric.  I honestly can't tell what the spark will be to awaken the sleeping giant once again and unite our efforts behind a common cause.  Hopefully, it will be something much less dramatic than Pearl Harbor was.

The worst kind of wake up call

- Let's use our brains people and get ahead of these very foreseeable future energy challenges.

The inevitability of solar

It probably wouldn't be too surprising to learn that I really like solar technology.  Passive solar design, solar air heating, solar cooling, daylighting a space, solar water heating, and PV are all fascinating to me.  I even count biofuels as "solar" too as we're using sunlight to grow plants specifically designed for liquid, transportable fuel.  The energy transition that we're in now feels to me how I think people in the 50's were thinking about space exploration.  Those were hopeful times where technology was magical to the common man and promised positive changes in the future.  Solar today is very much like that; almost everyone sees the promise of it even if they have reservations about its practicality.  My argument though is that solar is also, in all its forms, truly the only sound energy option for the next 25 years or more.  I don't claim that solar will be the only energy technology we'll use, but I see it as the heavy lifter in our energy mix and in that it will provide the bulk of the power we'll need to live the lives we want to live.

I don't say this as an idealist or insider looking to help solar win out over other technologies.  I say it because there are no other candidates on the horizon that will be as scalable and affordable as distributed solar is now and will continue to be for some time.  That is why I'm in the solar business.  I like a clean environment but that didn't motivated me to change careers.  I saw an opportunity to get into a growing solar industry on the ground floor; I see our society as a whole as getting in on the ground floor of solar right now too.  My job is to grow solar water heating in the residential space.  I work to find projects and partners across my region and each system sold is hard fought.  I know that we're not far from a time when solar technology will be on every building, however because we're already seeing the military move in this direction today.  By 2013, solar won't be a novelty anymore but a fundamental building component.

Europe is already there in many areas; what happens when the sleeping giant (US) awakes?

If solar is inevitable, then why even write this post?  Because the journey is just as important as the destination.  Growing a solar base of energy capacity has been sporadic up to this point because we haven't really acknowledged the fundamental instability of our existing energy portfolio.  We're really the only major country without a comprehensive energy policy which is even more damaging because we have the largest impact on world affairs.  Without a consensus behind solar technologies, we'll continue to be distracted by the loser technologies.  We'll fritter away our time & money on dead ends which will make the inevitable shift to solar that much more difficult.

The Losers
Nuclear won't win because we've had over 60 years to figure out a way to handle the waste, danger, and cost of a nuclear plant for electricity generation; we haven't yet and probably won't for at least another 30 years or more.  Coal is plentiful and will probably have a role for some time, but the world will no longer accept externalizing the environmental or societal costs of coal production for much longer.  Agree or disagree, but climate change is an issue that is not going to go away.  Natural gas is plentiful today and at cheap prices but as we continue to load shift transportation and electricity to this fuel, its run as a fossil fuel darling will end too.  If people like T. Boone Pickens can make their case, we'll be burning a lot more natural gas in the coming years; rising prices are sure to follow that move.

I want to be positive towards solar without resorting to throwing other energy sources under the bus (maybe I shouldn't have titled this section The Losers then ;-).  Selling against something is confrontational and tends to put people on the defensive if their world view is being challenged.  Enough can be found on the web bashing fossil fuels, but I wanted to point out up front that the discovery of oil in particular has been one of the most transformative developments in all of human history.  There may have never been a better time to be a human being than right now, and we owe this fact to oil.  It's inevitable that solar technologies will displace oil though and not because oil is dirty or inefficient or imported from hostile countries.  It won't even really be much of a choice to use less oil; it is because oil is becoming too expensive to burn anymore.

2008 numbers; the line is pointing up again today in 2011

Drill baby drill
We're already at a trading range between $90 and $115 per barrel with a global population at or near 7 billion people and the following 3 facts can only lead to even higher prices: 

1. We're going add another billion people in the next 15 years (more mouths to feed).
2. A greater percentage of the world will demand to live with a standard of living as we have in the US (more cars to drive).
3. We are consuming oil as we extract it today and no major reserves exist to make up for rising demand (nothing lasts forever).

Sure we have market players trying to manipulate oil prices.  Sure we limit where we drill new wells based on aesthetic and environmental factors.  The rarely discussed fact is that we haven't found any easily extractable oil reserves in any sort of quantity since the North Sea and now that's almost gone.  We need to be finding reserves on the scale of Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field every couple of years to keep up with the forecasted demand growth from rising global populations but we aren't.  We drill everyday (baby) but we have to acknowledge that the wells are literally running low.  The excellent but sobering documentary The End of Suburbia makes the case for what all this means much better than I can.  My contribution to the debate is to point out that the solar technology we have today can mitigate most if not all these troubles in a very, very short period of time.

Why solar wins
Once we see the scope of the challenge we face, the only conceivable step to take will be a large scale roll out of distributed solar technologies (PV, water heating, space heating, passive design, and daylighting).  It will be the most logical step because it is the step that individuals can actually participate in.  Plumbers can plumb solar water heaters with little or no training.  Carpenters can install skylights today.  Homeowners can connect more PV panels to their homes as their budget allows over time.  New buildings will capture and shed solar heat with no need for new technology--just a rearrangement of building and landscaping materials we use already.  We won't have to wait for anyone in charge or anything else to be invented for a dramatic roll out to occur.  It is really up to us individuals.

Roofing crew installing a solar water heating system

I can imagine that this post will have critics; I haven't really tried to make a convincing argument for many of the details I brought up.  I just wanted to lay out the way I see things though, and I get the feeling that many others are of a similar mind.  Change in life is inevitable and oftentimes difficult.  The sooner that you recognize the change, the better you can prepare, and the smoother the transition will be.  I'll continue to sell solar systems everyday because I enjoy the product, the challenge and the people in the industry.  I know that solar won't be novel for long though and that in many ways, I'm working my self out of a job.  I think that I'll be able to handle that change just fine when the time comes though. 

Free Hot Water with Every New Home!

Image courtesy VELUX America

In a recent NY Times article covering issues surrounding the ongoing housing slump, an interesting sales tactic caught my eye.  One builder outside Chicago is offering a credit at a local GM dealership with the purchase of a new home and he's not the only one.  While this promotion appears to be working to generate some sales, I have an even better idea for home builders.

In a market where new homes are competing against plummeting existing home prices driven by foreclosures, builders must differentiate their product on things other than price.  New homes must offer features that you can't find in older ones if they have any hope of being attractive.  One thing that almost no existing house has is an integrated solar water heating system.  A new home builder looking to stand out and make an impact in the minds of buyers should offer "Free Hot Water with Every New Home!"  Unlike with a free car, a free solar water heating system would reduce the homeowners' monthly power bills, reduce their carbon footprint, appreciate in value as fuel costs rise and make a leadership statement that appeals to 94% of us.  On top of that, local renewable energy creates good, local green collar jobs.

Solar water heating works everywhere in the US with almost immediate payback on invested dollars when financed as part of a standard home mortgage.  In an economic downturn, the best way out is to commit money to long term infrastructure enhancements.  In the past, this has meant roads, dams, bridges, etc that provide value for many years after the upfront costs were recovered.  Now we can add renewable energy to that mix.   Let's commit to making this sound investment today so that we can reap the benefits for decades to come.