Solar a Mortal Threat to Utilities

It appears that the public is waking up to the obvious threat that solar is to the status quo energy providers.  We live in an age of accelerating change and disruption.  I wrote last year about how solar will continue to expand rapidly into the general market regardless of what the utilities do to discourage it.  What today's Wall Street Journal piece means to me is that the national dialog will start to become even more rancorous with respect to clean energy issues.

David & Goliath -- Distributed Generation vs Traditional Utilities

Unfortunately, there is some truth to the fact that solar is currently only feasible for the wealthy and that federal tax credits could be seen as a transfer payment from average tax payers who can't afford solar to wealthy ones who can. The consequence of this dialog will be the elimination of federal and state incentives for distributed generation systems. Solar already has unsubsidized grid parity in many markets so growth their will continue to drive down the global costs for installing solar.  Companies like Solar City & Sun Run will have to re-model their current business plans, and I doubt they will weather the storm very well since their profitability is so tied to the current incentives.  New installation company concepts will emerge though and I think more traditional contractors will finally get into the game.

http://greenzu.com/solar-energy-political-cartoon

Utilities may go further and try to ban the connection of solar systems to the grid. Standalone solar with back up systems will be ready for the market by the time this happens though. Essentially this will be the last arrow in the utility's quiver to stop the rising tide of distributed solar. At that point, we'll probably cross the tipping point where they don't have enough rate payers to maintain affordable rates. Then things get really ugly.

While I am advocate for progress and technological innovation, crippled utilities will be a major issue for an already crippled political system to address. Add this difficult situation to the already huge list of complex issues that we don't seem to be able to effectively address (national debt, climate change, social security insolvency, resource depletion, population growth). The brinksmanship games we are playing will take on an entirely new dimension when we start to have daily brown outs and extended power outages.

Changing Times

Renewable Energy World had an article this morning that caught my attention.  The gist was that we have all the proof we need of man made global climate change and all technical tools we need to fix it.  Implementing these fixes won't reduce our standard of living; to the contrary, our collective way of life would be better in a clean energy economy.  For a number of reasons, however, solar hasn't gained the traction that it needs to be a robust industry and we are far from gaining the critical mass necessary for clean energy to dominate the total energy landscape.

Why?  I think the following reasons are part of the total answer:

• Fear of change in the popular mind
• Corrupt politicians on the take from lobbists
• Procrastination
• Nefariousness cabal of fossil fuel executives working for their own benefit to the detriment of society
• Ignorance of the complete cost-benefit profile of clean energy vs traditional energy
• Lack of inspirational leadership to point us down the right path
• Catch-22--we don't know how it will work because no one has implemented it and I want to wait for proof

We're at a societal crossroads now.  Economic issues are forcing our hand even before environmental ones have.  Either way, moving to clean energy is the right path as generation costs from dirty sources continue to swing widely and increment upwards.  Brace yourself for a rocky ride and don't fight the trends.  Flexibility is the key but so is recognizing that today's world will look vastly different than tomorrow's.

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Come gather 'round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone
If your time to youIs worth savin'
Then you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'
For the loser now
Will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don't stand in the doorway
Don't block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin'
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.

Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don't criticize
What you can't understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is
Rapidly agin'
Please get out of the new one
If you can't lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin'.

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is
Rapidly fadin'
And the first one now
Will later be last
For the times they are a-changin'.

- Bob Dylan The Times They Are A-Changin'